Теории международных инвестиций

 

Далее из книги Fischer Paul  Foreign direct investment in Russia. Strategy for Industrial Recovery. Macmillan Press Ltd., 2000

 

Table 1. OLI variables according to Dunning

A. Ownership-specific advantages (0-advantages)

(represent assets vis-a- vis major competitors)

•  Size of company and established position in domestic and international markets

• Management and leadership skills

• Product know-how

•  Process technologies, engineering skills, R&D capacity

•  Monopoly/oligopoly power, allowing exclusive or favoured access to inputs, e.g. labour, natural resources

• Trade marks

• Organizational, marketing systems

B. Internalization-specific advantages (Ladvantages)

(protect against market failure and enable control of assets»

I-advantages can be developed:

• where there is buyer uncertainty about the nature and value of products and technologies being sold

• where the market does not permit price discrimination

•  where there is a need for the seller to protect product quality

I-advantages enable:

•  a reduction in costs related to market research, negotiations and monitoring

• the capture of economies of scale and interdependent activities

• compensation for absence of future market

•  the avoidance or exploitation of government-related barriers (e.g. quotas, tariffs, price controls, tax differences)

• the control of supplies and conditions of sale of inputs including technology)

•  the control of market outlets (including those that might be used by competitors)

• engagement in cross-subsidization and internal pricing strategies so that profits arc shitted to low-tax environments

C. Location-specific advantages (L-advantages)

(may favour home or host countries)

• Spatial distribution of inputs and markets

• Competitive input prices: labour, energy, raw materials, components, transport and communications

•  Political stability, balance of power

•  Liberal policies; low tariffs, favourable tax rates, FDI incentives, good climate for investment

•  Reliable legal system

•  Developed physical infrastructure: roads, railways, airports, ports, telecommunications

•  Sociocultural proximity: language, history, mentality, business practices

•  Long-term market potential and size (possible economies of scale)

Source: Adapted from Dunning (1981, 1992).

 

Table 2. Main features of the five stages in a country's N0I position

Stage	0-advantages	L-advantages	I-advantages	Industry characteristics	Government intervention
Stage 1 Low inbound FDI     Nonexistent outbound FDI   Decreasing N0I curve	Low competitive advantages of domestic firms   Little indigenous technology accumulation Few firm-created assets	Insufficient country- specific assets to attract FDI: low domestic demand levels; inappropriate economic systems or government policies; inadequate infrastructure such as transportation and communication facilities Low level of education and training of workers	Very low compared with foreign competitors	Labour intensive low skill manufacturing   Primary sector processing	Protection of infant industry Import controls Local content policies Upgrading of human resources through education and training Import substitution and anti-FDI policies
Stay 2 Rising inbound FDI   Negligible out-hound FDI   Worsening N0I position activities	Increasing competitiveness of domestic firms, especially in traditional sectors and through growing export activities	Rising country- specific advantages (e.g. growing domestic markets)	Increasing I - advantages of domestic firms	Semiskilled and moderately knowledge-intensive	Tariff and nontanff barriers Less protectionist FDI policy
Stay 3 Slower growth of inbound FDI Faster growth of outbound FDI Upward N0I curve	Increased competitiveness of local firms	Increase in per capita income, demand for high-quality goods	Existing I- advantages of domestic firms	Deteriorating advantages in labour-intensive activities   Domestic wage increases	Liberal FDl and export-oriented policies
Stay 4 Outward  FDl stock is equal to or  exceeds inward FDI stock   Rate of growth of outward FDI is still higher than for inward FDI	High competitiveness of domestic firms both at home and abroad due to modern production processes and innovative products	Fairly high per capita income	Increasing I- advantages domestic of companies	Expansion of capital-intensive industries   World leadership in a number of industries	Liberal  FDI policies
Stay 5 NOI position falls slightly and fluctuates around zего   Both inward and outward FDI continue increasing	High competitiveness of domestic TNCs	Very high levels of average per capita income (on average above US $20000 p.a.)	High I-advantages of domestic companies	World leadership in capital-intensive and high-tech industries	Continuation of liberal FDI policies   Promotion of outward FDI

 

 

The investment development path of nations

The eclectic paradigm also helps understand how countries move ahead on the investment development path from their initial position as exclusive recipients to their subsequent position as originators of FDI.

             The notion of the investment development path (IDP) implies that the outward and inward FDI position of a country is directly related to the level of its economic development in relation to the rest of the world. The basic elements of the theory were formulated by Dunning in 1981; they were further refined and extended in cooperation with Narula from Limburg University, the Netherlands (1994). The IDP paradigm suggests that countries pass through five main stages of development (Table 2), and they can be classified according to their propensity to be inward and/or outward direct investors. The paradigm illustrates the net outward investment (N0I) position of a country, which is defined as the difference between inward and outward FDI stock. A positive N0I position means that the country has become a net outward investor, and vice versa in the case of a negative N01 position. In line with Dunning's eclectic paradigm, a country's propensity to attract or not to attract FDI rests on three types of advantages related to ownership, location and internalization.

The IDP suggests that companies tend to invest in markets with lower per capita GDP than their home countries, at least until they reach the fifth stage. A positive net outward FDI position offers a measure of the transfer of created assets to lower-income countries; it is compatible with the technological advantage in the home country of the investing TNC. This measure must be confronted with other types of FDI such as market-seeking FDI or strategic asset-acquiring FDI (mergers and acquisitions). There is, however, no absolute tendency to always invest downstream in lower-cost countries. Besides, a wide variation of net ownership   advantages can exist across industries leading to investments in countries with higher per capita GDP by TNCs from countries in stages 2 and 3 (e.g. Tata from India in the United States, United Kingdom, and Singapore;       Salim from Indonesia in the United States, Europe and Japan; Hyundai from South Korea in Canada).

 

Examples:

Stage 1: Bulgaria, Russia, Vietnam

Stage 2: Hungary, India, Indonesia, Poland

Stage 3: Brazil, China, Mexico

Stage 4: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States

Stage 5: Canada

Source: Adapted from J. H. Dunning 'The Investment Development Path Revisited', in Foreign Direct Investment and Governments. Catalysts for Economic Restructuring, 1996,p.2.

 

Per capita GDP is not the only determinant of a country's FDI position. Net outward investment per capita is likely to be higher in countries that depend on 'created' assets (e.g. know-how, technologies, management) for their prosperity than in countries where natural resources abound (e.g. China vs Singapore, Russia vs Hungary). Government measures may also stimulate or restrict the level of either inward or outward investment and can significantly alter a country's net outward FDI position.

The FDI position of a country is also conditioned by its general economic performance, particularly the stage of development of its industries, which reflects its endowment of labour, capital and other resources. Countries where labour-intensive, low-skill manufacturing or natural resource extraction prevails are mostly net FDI importers. As they move on to capital-intensive industrial activities, domestic companies gain financial strength and start undertaking investments abroad (stages 2 and 3 on the IDP). The Chinese and Indian economics reached that stage on the IDP during the early 1990s.⁴² The net FDI position starts improving further with the expansion of more advanced high-tech and knowledge-intensive goods and services, especially if there is a clear policy of TNC-facilitated industrial upgrading that allows a country to move on to stage 4 of the IDP (e.g. France, Germany).

Russia is in a somewhat paradoxical situation. Since economic transformation started many years ago, the country has not been able to attract volumes of FDI commensurate with its size and potential resources. On the other hand, if official statistics can be taken at face value, Russia has built up the strongest outward FDI position among European transition countries. Outward FDI corresponds to about one-third of inbound FDI and is growing, while inbound FDI is still stagnating.⁴⁵ This fact places the country at stage 3 of the IDP. Although low inbound volumes mainly reflect the lack of a coherent FDI policy and the still unclear legal conditions for foreign investors, the Russian case shows that intermediary positions and even jumps on the IDP are possible, and that the theory cannot claim to be a foolproof recipe for economic development with the support of FDI.

            However, the theory postulates that countries at stages 2 and 3 first experience increases in inward and then in outward FDI, which is hardly the case for Russia in 1999. If Russian authorities will make all the necessary efforts in the coming years to attract more FDI, then much higher inbound than outbound flows are to be expected. The theory would thus regain its full validity, placing Russia at the very beginning of stage 2 of the IDP, which would be in line with the country's overall level of  current economic and industrial development. In fact, if abstraction is made of current outbound flows, Russia would currently be somewhere at stage 1 of the IDP, i.e. at the beginning of a long process of massive inbound FD1. It should be the aim of the Russian government to fuel industrial development through an adequate FDI policy so that stage 3 can be reached during 2005-10. This would demonstrate a certain ability of Russian enterprises to compete in world markets.

Policy implications of major FDI theories

             FDI theories elaborated by leading scholars attempt to find plausible explanations for the motivations of cross-border investment activities ofTNCs and ways of economic advancement of countries through FDI. They include findings that can offer policy-makers valuable tools for increasing FDI by anticipating TNC behaviour, acting on fundamental decision-making variables at corporate level, and monitoring the FDI position of a national economy with respect to competitor nations. Some of the policy implications of the different theories are summarized in 'Fable 1.6. FDI theories can provide significant guidelines for policy-making at the highest level, provided the assumptions underlying a specific theory are adapted to the local Russian context. The findings of a few selected theories can assist policy-makers in optimizing the entire FDI enhancement process, from strategic planning to the analysis phase and implementation, including the use of appropriate policy instruments and efficiency control. FDI specialists can thus be motivated to positively influence potential investors so that the desired investment can be solicited.

The theories presented in this chapter already demonstrate the complex nature of the 'FDI issue', which demands state-of-the-art intelligence, information and promotion mechanisms. To approach foreign investors effectively, the authorities will need to bestow an independent body or agencv with the needed executive and advisory powers in the field of FDI.⁴⁴ The agency needs to become credible quickly and therefore must enjoy the highest possible political legitimation by liaising with the top level of the Russian executive and legislative. In a transition economy, it would be ineffective to split FDl-related issues among several ministerial departments. Strong coordinating powers are required to rectify Russia's foreign investment situation and to achieve speedy industrial upgrading.

Independently of the definitive FDI strategy adopted by the Russian leadership, regular monitoring and intelligence operations are indispensable in a dynamic world marked by intense competition and growing economic integration among nations. Major FDI theories provide a valuable incentive so that political decisions are based on actual facts and realistic projections with respect to global opportunities and competition.

 

Table 3   Policy implications of major FDI theories

Major FDI theories	FDI parameters affected	Policy implications and intelligence efforts
Int-l product cycle	Industrial sector	To encourage policy-makers to conduct systematic intelligence operations on the development of promising economic sectors and industries To observe closely which sectors are moving from a pattern focused on foreign trade towards a pattern focused on FDI
Monopolistic competition	TNCs	To monitor activities of global market leaders and their key factors of success (corporate resources, motivations, type of technologies and know-how, R&D budgets, type of preferred investment, etc.) by screening annual reports (mainly for public limited companies) and press releases in specialized and other journals. The organization in charge of FDI monitoring in Russia should subscribe to these information sources from major FDI-exporting countries. These journals also include valuable information on medium-sized TNCs To study, each year, the international ranking of the world's leading oligopolist TNCs. The analysis could focus on a number ot essential variables: type of activity, turnover, assets abroad and employment. Monitoring should cover the top 500 or, at least, the top 200 companies. A separate intelligence activity should cover the largest TNCs from emerging countries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, South Korea) and their global FDI activities
Internalization theory	TNCs	To incorporate in Russia's FDI intelligence efforts observation of company-specific know-how, both for large and medium-sized TNCs To focus on technologies and know-how offered by medium-sized operators in selected countries and sectors on the basis of Russia's industrial potential and the government's priority sectors to be developed in the coming 10-15 years To build intelligence resources and skills that general research operations cannot generate
Flying geese paradigm	Competitor LEMs and other emerging economies	• To observe macroeconomic indicators, particularly foreign trade patterns of technology-exporting countries • To monitor evolution of industrial competitiveness in competitor countries • To study the positive effects of industrial upgrading through FDI in Russia for neighbouring CIS economies • To speed up the catching-up process through international economic integration
Competitive advantage of nations	Industrial competitiveness criteria, national policy agenda	• To understand the importance of strategy and planning • To consider the impact of government policy on national well-being • To monitor industrial competitiveness and factors of success • To determine the correlation between the FDI situation and economic/industrial performance
Eclectic paradigm	TNCs, competition among nations	• To monitor domestic company-specific factors for raising competitiveness • To improve location-specific advantages in the economic, political and legal spheres
Investment development path	Competition among nations	To measure national competitiveness by monitoring a country's net outward investment position • To achieve higher sector competitiveness through targeted FDI

¹ Ozava in UNCTAD. World Investment Report, 2000